Northern Succession

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Photos apparently of Kim Jong-eun from a South Korean newspaper. Photo: AFP

At a much-anticipated political convention in Pyongyang, the youngest son of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-il was elected to his first leadership posts in the ruling Workers’ Party, according to the North’s state-run media. The move confirmed for many North Korea watchers that the ailing leader, who suffered a stroke two years ago, is paving a path for dynastic succession for his third son, Kim Jong-eun, who before now, had never appeared in the state media.

On Wednesday, Kim Jong-eun was named a vice chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission as well as to the party’s Central Committee, the Korean Central News Agency said. In advance of the convention, the largest in 30 years, he was also promoted to a four-star general by his father.

Little is known about Kim Jong-eun, believed to be in his late 20s, except that he has been chosen over his two older brothers for the leadership role and that he will face considerable challenges when he does take over rule of the isolated nation of 22 million. David Kang, director of the Korean Studies Institute at the University of Southern California, notes the transfer of power is quite different from when Kim Jong-il succeeded his father Kim Il-sung in 1994. “At that time, the country had not yet experienced the devastating famine of the late 1990s that killed perhaps one million citizens. The economy was still relatively robust, and of course, the nuclear issue had only begun to emerge,” said Kang.

“Kim Jong-eun will attempt to take and hold power in much more diminished circumstances. The country is weaker, poorer, has faced almost two decades of withering international pressure over its nuclear policies, and the citizens themselves are slowly learning more about the outside world than ever before. In these conditions, it is not clear whether any ruler can find a viable set of policies to solve the daunting internal and external problems facing North Korea.”

Because Kim Jong-eun is still young, Kang said there is speculation that Jang Song-taek, Kim Jong-il’s brother-in-law, may act as a “guardian” for Kim Jong-eun during the first few years. Kim Jong-il’s sister, Kim Kyong-hui (and wife of Jang) was also named a general this week, which Kang called further signs of the “emerging ruling circle in Pyongyang.”